Central Banking
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July Inflation Rises, But Weakening Labor Complicates Fed’s Choice
The Fed is caught between cooling labor conditions and persistent demand, as nominal spending growth remains above its pre-pandemic pace.
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Fed’s Task Force Should Fix What It Targets
A nominal spending target would spare The Fed guessing about the causes of inflation. The Chairman’s new task force could apply a rule instead.
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Japan’s Debt Crisis Is a Global Warning
Japan can watch debt-service costs consume its budget, or suppress rates and risk inflation. Decades of borrowing have eliminated the easy options.
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The Constitution’s Forgotten Economic Tradeoffs
The Articles of Confederation are often remembered as a failure. But their limits on taxing and commercial power offered greater protection for economic freedom than the Constitution that replaced them.
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Warsh Wants the Federal Reserve to Rethink the Rules
The new chairman has long argued the Fed’s own institutional habits undermine sound money. His blueprint suggests key reforms.
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One Month of Falling Prices Won’t Restore Price Stability
June’s PCE report showed prices falling as energy prices retreated, but underlying inflation and nominal spending remain too strong.
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Welcome to Trillionistan. Don’t Get Comfortable.
Not all trillions — debts, valuations, investments — are created equal. Huge nominal numbers often obscure the institutions and incentives that produced them.
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•
AIER Everyday Price Index Down Slightly After Spring Cost Surge
Our in-house inflation measure fell one percent, though core household expenses continue to climb. Post-surge relief from gasoline prices concealed smaller effects, buying the Fed some time.
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•
June Inflation Slowed as Energy Prices Fell
Markets sharply reduced the odds of a July rate increase after June CPI showed broad-based moderation in prices.
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•
The Fed Needs Independence, Not Immunity
Monetary policy deserves insulation from politics, but regulation and emergency lending powers may not. Can Congress and the Courts differentiate?
-
•
July Inflation Rises, But Weakening Labor Complicates Fed’s Choice
The Fed is caught between cooling labor conditions and persistent demand, as nominal spending growth remains above its pre-pandemic pace.
-
•
Fed’s Task Force Should Fix What It Targets
A nominal spending target would spare The Fed guessing about the causes of inflation. The Chairman’s new task force could apply a rule instead.
-
•
Japan’s Debt Crisis Is a Global Warning
Japan can watch debt-service costs consume its budget, or suppress rates and risk inflation. Decades of borrowing have eliminated the easy options.
-
•
The Constitution’s Forgotten Economic Tradeoffs
The Articles of Confederation are often remembered as a failure. But their limits on taxing and commercial power offered greater protection for economic freedom than the Constitution that replaced them.
-
•
Warsh Wants the Federal Reserve to Rethink the Rules
The new chairman has long argued the Fed’s own institutional habits undermine sound money. His blueprint suggests key reforms.
-
•
One Month of Falling Prices Won’t Restore Price Stability
June’s PCE report showed prices falling as energy prices retreated, but underlying inflation and nominal spending remain too strong.
-
•
Welcome to Trillionistan. Don’t Get Comfortable.
Not all trillions — debts, valuations, investments — are created equal. Huge nominal numbers often obscure the institutions and incentives that produced them.
-
•
AIER Everyday Price Index Down Slightly After Spring Cost Surge
Our in-house inflation measure fell one percent, though core household expenses continue to climb. Post-surge relief from gasoline prices concealed smaller effects, buying the Fed some time.
-
•
June Inflation Slowed as Energy Prices Fell
Markets sharply reduced the odds of a July rate increase after June CPI showed broad-based moderation in prices.
-
•
The Fed Needs Independence, Not Immunity
Monetary policy deserves insulation from politics, but regulation and emergency lending powers may not. Can Congress and the Courts differentiate?