Debt and Deficits
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Manufacturing Surged When Tariffs Were Lifted
Tariffs raised costs and manufacturing jobs disappeared. Now, the administration is declaring victory for partially filling the hole it dug.
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Afghanistan, Again? Unlearned Lessons of America’s Longest War
Congress rejected constitutional alternatives in favor of remaking a nation. Abroad, as at home, lawmakers cannot manufacture preferred social outcomes simply by spending more money.
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Rubble to Riches: Reckoning with West Germany’s Postwar Economic Miracle
Tobias Straumann’s new book explains how economic freedoms and currency reform helped West Germany outstrip not just the Soviet Socialist East, but many other nations, on its way to economic recovery.
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The Anti-Federalist Warning About America’s Debt Crisis
Brutus feared that unlimited borrowing power would eventually overwhelm political restraint. Congress has accumulated 40 trillion reasons to reconsider that warning.
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A Bankrupt America Can’t Defend the World
As interest costs consume an ever-larger share of the federal budget, maintaining an informal global empire becomes fiscally and strategically indefensible.
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An Aging, Shrinking Population: Must a Smaller World Be Poorer?
Humanity is approaching an unprecedented demographic turn. Can productivity outrun population decline?
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Bond Markets Are Losing Patience — And Putting Governments on Notice
Rising yields are turning sovereign debt from an abstract fiscal problem into an immediate budget constraint.
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Debt Jubilees Only Change Who Pays
A debt jubilee can erase an obligation on paper, but it cannot erase the underlying economic cost.
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Bessent vs. Druckenmiller: Bond Vigilantes versus Bond Bureaucrats
Investors are testing the Treasury’s pain threshold. By suppressing yield signals, bond bureaucrats may summon the very bond vigilantes they hope to suppress.
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America Can’t Outgrow $40 Trillion in Debt
Stabilizing the federal debt through growth alone would require 7.3 percent annual real GDP growth. Nothing in our history suggests that’s remotely plausible.
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•
Manufacturing Surged When Tariffs Were Lifted
Tariffs raised costs and manufacturing jobs disappeared. Now, the administration is declaring victory for partially filling the hole it dug.
-
•
Afghanistan, Again? Unlearned Lessons of America’s Longest War
Congress rejected constitutional alternatives in favor of remaking a nation. Abroad, as at home, lawmakers cannot manufacture preferred social outcomes simply by spending more money.
-
•
Rubble to Riches: Reckoning with West Germany’s Postwar Economic Miracle
Tobias Straumann’s new book explains how economic freedoms and currency reform helped West Germany outstrip not just the Soviet Socialist East, but many other nations, on its way to economic recovery.
-
•
The Anti-Federalist Warning About America’s Debt Crisis
Brutus feared that unlimited borrowing power would eventually overwhelm political restraint. Congress has accumulated 40 trillion reasons to reconsider that warning.
-
•
A Bankrupt America Can’t Defend the World
As interest costs consume an ever-larger share of the federal budget, maintaining an informal global empire becomes fiscally and strategically indefensible.
-
•
An Aging, Shrinking Population: Must a Smaller World Be Poorer?
Humanity is approaching an unprecedented demographic turn. Can productivity outrun population decline?
-
•
Bond Markets Are Losing Patience — And Putting Governments on Notice
Rising yields are turning sovereign debt from an abstract fiscal problem into an immediate budget constraint.
-
•
Debt Jubilees Only Change Who Pays
A debt jubilee can erase an obligation on paper, but it cannot erase the underlying economic cost.
-
•
Bessent vs. Druckenmiller: Bond Vigilantes versus Bond Bureaucrats
Investors are testing the Treasury’s pain threshold. By suppressing yield signals, bond bureaucrats may summon the very bond vigilantes they hope to suppress.
-
•
America Can’t Outgrow $40 Trillion in Debt
Stabilizing the federal debt through growth alone would require 7.3 percent annual real GDP growth. Nothing in our history suggests that’s remotely plausible.