Financial Markets
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Business Conditions Monthly July 2026
Consumers are still spending and businesses are still investing, but housing and hiring have faltered. Growth is uneven and increasingly dependent on a few capital-intensive sectors.
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Elon Musk’s Paper Billions Are Vanishing
The global trillionaire count returned to zero not long after SpaceX’s IPO. Market fluctuations show the danger of imposing cash tax bills on stock-price wealth.
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The Fed Finally Raised Rates. Now Comes the Hard Part.
Inflation has been above target for 65 months. The Fed took a first step, but to restore stability, tightening must continue.
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Good Intentions Paved the Road to the 2008 Financial Crisis
The financial crisis demonstrated how regulations can produce dangerous incentives — and how discretionary intervention can magnify uncertainty. Eighteen years later, policymakers remain tempted by both.
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The Fed’s Mortgage Policy Made Homeownership Cost More
The Fed’s mortgage-market policy rewarded existing homeowners, but raised the price of entry for first-time and future buyers.
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Will Trump Accounts Make Every Kid a Millionaire?
The $1,000 seed can grow substantially, but seven-figure wealth requires decades of compounding, continued contributions, and strong market returns.
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Why CPI Ignores Homes, Stocks, and the Cost of Getting Ahead
Capturing only what households consume, inflation stats miss the assets they hope to own. Recent inflation has rewarded existing owners at the expense of aspiring ones.
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Bond Markets Are Losing Patience — And Putting Governments on Notice
Rising yields are turning sovereign debt from an abstract fiscal problem into an immediate budget constraint.
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Bessent vs. Druckenmiller: Bond Vigilantes versus Bond Bureaucrats
Investors are testing the Treasury’s pain threshold. By suppressing yield signals, bond bureaucrats may summon the very bond vigilantes they hope to suppress.
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•
Put Money on It? The Social Value of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets reveal which beliefs people are actually willing to risk money on — and generate valuable information in the process.
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•
Business Conditions Monthly July 2026
Consumers are still spending and businesses are still investing, but housing and hiring have faltered. Growth is uneven and increasingly dependent on a few capital-intensive sectors.
-
•
Elon Musk’s Paper Billions Are Vanishing
The global trillionaire count returned to zero not long after SpaceX’s IPO. Market fluctuations show the danger of imposing cash tax bills on stock-price wealth.
-
•
The Fed Finally Raised Rates. Now Comes the Hard Part.
Inflation has been above target for 65 months. The Fed took a first step, but to restore stability, tightening must continue.
-
•
Good Intentions Paved the Road to the 2008 Financial Crisis
The financial crisis demonstrated how regulations can produce dangerous incentives — and how discretionary intervention can magnify uncertainty. Eighteen years later, policymakers remain tempted by both.
-
•
The Fed’s Mortgage Policy Made Homeownership Cost More
The Fed’s mortgage-market policy rewarded existing homeowners, but raised the price of entry for first-time and future buyers.
-
•
Will Trump Accounts Make Every Kid a Millionaire?
The $1,000 seed can grow substantially, but seven-figure wealth requires decades of compounding, continued contributions, and strong market returns.
-
•
Why CPI Ignores Homes, Stocks, and the Cost of Getting Ahead
Capturing only what households consume, inflation stats miss the assets they hope to own. Recent inflation has rewarded existing owners at the expense of aspiring ones.
-
•
Bond Markets Are Losing Patience — And Putting Governments on Notice
Rising yields are turning sovereign debt from an abstract fiscal problem into an immediate budget constraint.
-
•
Bessent vs. Druckenmiller: Bond Vigilantes versus Bond Bureaucrats
Investors are testing the Treasury’s pain threshold. By suppressing yield signals, bond bureaucrats may summon the very bond vigilantes they hope to suppress.
-
•
Put Money on It? The Social Value of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets reveal which beliefs people are actually willing to risk money on — and generate valuable information in the process.