Financial Markets
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Business Conditions Monthly May 2026
Leading indicators improved in May, but coincident activity softened and lagging measures deteriorated sharply. The economy is still balanced, but on a narrowing base.
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Welcome to Trillionistan. Don’t Get Comfortable.
Not all trillions — debts, valuations, investments — are created equal. Huge nominal numbers often obscure the institutions and incentives that produced them.
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Does Funding Research Give Government a Claim to Tech Firms?
Public research may contribute to private innovation, but causal influence does not give government an ownership stake.
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Why Is the Federal Reserve Paying Banks Billions in Interest?
The Fed pays banks billions more in interest than it earns on assets. Could a floor system save the central bank from future losses?
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Business Conditions Monthly April 2026
Data reveal a mixed but resilient economy: current activity improved, while signals of future growth remain murky.
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Nearly All Monetary Rules Say the Fed Should Raise Rates
Continued inflation, hawkish regional bank presidents, and 11 of 12 monetary policy rules suggest the Fed should raise rates. The price of the Fed’s “patience” could be paid economy wide.
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World’s First Net-Worth Trillionaire Shows Us How Markets Price the Future
Behind the headline figure lies a deeper economic story: financial markets assigning enormous value to long-duration, high-risk technological bets.
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Measuring Trump 2.0 Against Trump 1.0: Tariff Boasts Meet the Data
Trump credits tariffs for an economic “turnaround.” The data show stronger economic performance in his first term than in his second.
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•
The Working Class Built Football. Fiat Money Priced Them Out
The sport built by the working class has become a luxury product through the slow, compounding arithmetic of central bank inflation.
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Can Stock Indexes Afford to Ignore SpaceX?
Firms that grow large before going public raise questions about whether index membership rules shape market reality rather than merely reflect it.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly May 2026
Leading indicators improved in May, but coincident activity softened and lagging measures deteriorated sharply. The economy is still balanced, but on a narrowing base.
-
•
Welcome to Trillionistan. Don’t Get Comfortable.
Not all trillions — debts, valuations, investments — are created equal. Huge nominal numbers often obscure the institutions and incentives that produced them.
-
•
Does Funding Research Give Government a Claim to Tech Firms?
Public research may contribute to private innovation, but causal influence does not give government an ownership stake.
-
•
Why Is the Federal Reserve Paying Banks Billions in Interest?
The Fed pays banks billions more in interest than it earns on assets. Could a floor system save the central bank from future losses?
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly April 2026
Data reveal a mixed but resilient economy: current activity improved, while signals of future growth remain murky.
-
•
Nearly All Monetary Rules Say the Fed Should Raise Rates
Continued inflation, hawkish regional bank presidents, and 11 of 12 monetary policy rules suggest the Fed should raise rates. The price of the Fed’s “patience” could be paid economy wide.
-
•
World’s First Net-Worth Trillionaire Shows Us How Markets Price the Future
Behind the headline figure lies a deeper economic story: financial markets assigning enormous value to long-duration, high-risk technological bets.
-
•
Measuring Trump 2.0 Against Trump 1.0: Tariff Boasts Meet the Data
Trump credits tariffs for an economic “turnaround.” The data show stronger economic performance in his first term than in his second.
-
•
The Working Class Built Football. Fiat Money Priced Them Out
The sport built by the working class has become a luxury product through the slow, compounding arithmetic of central bank inflation.
-
•
Can Stock Indexes Afford to Ignore SpaceX?
Firms that grow large before going public raise questions about whether index membership rules shape market reality rather than merely reflect it.