Fiscal Policy
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Business Conditions Monthly July 2026
Consumers are still spending and businesses are still investing, but housing and hiring have faltered. Growth is uneven and increasingly dependent on a few capital-intensive sectors.
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Beefsteak Socialists? Left and Right Are Competing to Control the Economy
By making political control more valuable, distorting markets can encourage rival factions to seek still more power.
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Will Trump Accounts Make Every Kid a Millionaire?
The $1,000 seed can grow substantially, but seven-figure wealth requires decades of compounding, continued contributions, and strong market returns.
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Bond Markets Are Losing Patience — And Putting Governments on Notice
Rising yields are turning sovereign debt from an abstract fiscal problem into an immediate budget constraint.
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Congress Reformed Welfare. Bureaucrats Regrew It Anyway
Voters demanded the 1996 welfare reform law that limited eligibility and emphasized work. Since then, executive agencies have used their discretion to quietly loosen those rules.
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Bessent vs. Druckenmiller: Bond Vigilantes versus Bond Bureaucrats
Investors are testing the Treasury’s pain threshold. By suppressing yield signals, bond bureaucrats may summon the very bond vigilantes they hope to suppress.
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Japan’s Debt Crisis Is a Global Warning
Japan can watch debt-service costs consume its budget, or suppress rates and risk inflation. Decades of borrowing have eliminated the easy options.
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How Congress Turned Budget Reconciliation Into a Tool for More Spending
A process designed to overcome political obstacles to deficit reduction is now helping Congress avoid the reforms that matter most.
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Who Gets Rich from Innovation? Evidence from Broadband Expansion on the Colville Reservation
The biggest winners from new technologies are usually the people who use them, not the people who invent them.
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Getting Unemployment Insurance Back to Work
The pandemic exposed weaknesses that had accumulated over decades.
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•
Business Conditions Monthly July 2026
Consumers are still spending and businesses are still investing, but housing and hiring have faltered. Growth is uneven and increasingly dependent on a few capital-intensive sectors.
-
•
Beefsteak Socialists? Left and Right Are Competing to Control the Economy
By making political control more valuable, distorting markets can encourage rival factions to seek still more power.
-
•
Will Trump Accounts Make Every Kid a Millionaire?
The $1,000 seed can grow substantially, but seven-figure wealth requires decades of compounding, continued contributions, and strong market returns.
-
•
Bond Markets Are Losing Patience — And Putting Governments on Notice
Rising yields are turning sovereign debt from an abstract fiscal problem into an immediate budget constraint.
-
•
Congress Reformed Welfare. Bureaucrats Regrew It Anyway
Voters demanded the 1996 welfare reform law that limited eligibility and emphasized work. Since then, executive agencies have used their discretion to quietly loosen those rules.
-
•
Bessent vs. Druckenmiller: Bond Vigilantes versus Bond Bureaucrats
Investors are testing the Treasury’s pain threshold. By suppressing yield signals, bond bureaucrats may summon the very bond vigilantes they hope to suppress.
-
•
Japan’s Debt Crisis Is a Global Warning
Japan can watch debt-service costs consume its budget, or suppress rates and risk inflation. Decades of borrowing have eliminated the easy options.
-
•
How Congress Turned Budget Reconciliation Into a Tool for More Spending
A process designed to overcome political obstacles to deficit reduction is now helping Congress avoid the reforms that matter most.
-
•
Who Gets Rich from Innovation? Evidence from Broadband Expansion on the Colville Reservation
The biggest winners from new technologies are usually the people who use them, not the people who invent them.
-
•
Getting Unemployment Insurance Back to Work
The pandemic exposed weaknesses that had accumulated over decades.