Inflation
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AIER’s Thanksgiving Cost Index Climbs Over 5 Percent from 2022 to 2023
“The constituents of the Thanksgiving Cost Index include turkey, sauces and gravies, bread, canned fruit, vegetables, and pies and cakes.” ~Peter C. Earle
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The Fed Delivered Disinflation
“Most prices are higher today than they would have been had they grown at an average rate of 2 percent since January 2020. We oughtn’t pin a medal on an arsonist’s chest for putting out a fire he started.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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The FOMC Was Right to Not Hike
“The best approach for the FOMC is to keep its rate target where it is. We should wait for additional inflation data in November before calling for even-tighter monetary policy.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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Inflation Remains High in September
“The Fed should keep monetary policy tight as inflation returns to its 2-percent target. But if it tightens too much, it will push the economy into an unnecessary and painful recession.” ~William J. Luther
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Argentina’s Canary in the Coalmine
“How can one compare the US to Argentina, which has suffered a century of political instability, and has been a darling of IMF case studies for the past 40 years?” ~Nikolai G. Wenzel and Valentina Yayi Morales
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Rising Treasury Yields Can’t Substitute for Fed Rate Hikes
“If the yield curve is the explanation, then market forces aren’t ‘substituting’ for Fed policy. They’re simply reflecting an economic transition from one microeconomic equilibrium in the market for loanable funds to another.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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Does a Blowout Third-Quarter GDP Number Vindicate Bidenomics?
“US citizens will, in the event of an uncommonly strong third-quarter US GDP release, benefit from taking close note of political self-aggrandizement made in its wake. Upcoming GDP releases may require reminding administration officials of statements made tomorrow regarding the prospects of Bidenomics.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Weak Economy Provides Key Policy Lessons
“Sure, supply-side factors contributed to higher prices in some markets, as did supply chain bottlenecks. But those are short-term fluctuations that don’t tell the entire story of reduced purchasing power for everyone.” ~Vance Ginn
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Inflation Ticks Up Again. Keep an Eye on Oil
“Major changes in oil prices seem likely to drive the near-term changes in CPI inflation, both headline inflation and possibly core as well. Another big question is how the Fed will respond.” ~Thomas L. Hogan
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Steady As She Goes
“But even if new PCE figures confirm a bump in the disinflationary road, it’s still likely best for the FOMC to hold off on further rate hikes.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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•
AIER’s Thanksgiving Cost Index Climbs Over 5 Percent from 2022 to 2023
“The constituents of the Thanksgiving Cost Index include turkey, sauces and gravies, bread, canned fruit, vegetables, and pies and cakes.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
The Fed Delivered Disinflation
“Most prices are higher today than they would have been had they grown at an average rate of 2 percent since January 2020. We oughtn’t pin a medal on an arsonist’s chest for putting out a fire he started.” ~Alexander W. Salter
-
•
The FOMC Was Right to Not Hike
“The best approach for the FOMC is to keep its rate target where it is. We should wait for additional inflation data in November before calling for even-tighter monetary policy.” ~Alexander W. Salter
-
•
Inflation Remains High in September
“The Fed should keep monetary policy tight as inflation returns to its 2-percent target. But if it tightens too much, it will push the economy into an unnecessary and painful recession.” ~William J. Luther
-
•
Argentina’s Canary in the Coalmine
“How can one compare the US to Argentina, which has suffered a century of political instability, and has been a darling of IMF case studies for the past 40 years?” ~Nikolai G. Wenzel and Valentina Yayi Morales
-
•
Rising Treasury Yields Can’t Substitute for Fed Rate Hikes
“If the yield curve is the explanation, then market forces aren’t ‘substituting’ for Fed policy. They’re simply reflecting an economic transition from one microeconomic equilibrium in the market for loanable funds to another.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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•
Does a Blowout Third-Quarter GDP Number Vindicate Bidenomics?
“US citizens will, in the event of an uncommonly strong third-quarter US GDP release, benefit from taking close note of political self-aggrandizement made in its wake. Upcoming GDP releases may require reminding administration officials of statements made tomorrow regarding the prospects of Bidenomics.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
Weak Economy Provides Key Policy Lessons
“Sure, supply-side factors contributed to higher prices in some markets, as did supply chain bottlenecks. But those are short-term fluctuations that don’t tell the entire story of reduced purchasing power for everyone.” ~Vance Ginn
-
•
Inflation Ticks Up Again. Keep an Eye on Oil
“Major changes in oil prices seem likely to drive the near-term changes in CPI inflation, both headline inflation and possibly core as well. Another big question is how the Fed will respond.” ~Thomas L. Hogan
-
•
Steady As She Goes
“But even if new PCE figures confirm a bump in the disinflationary road, it’s still likely best for the FOMC to hold off on further rate hikes.” ~Alexander W. Salter