Inflation
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Redefining Inflation to Obscure Its Origins
By redefining inflation as consumer prices, we distort how we interpret policy, inequality, and markets.
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Congress Is Moving the Goalposts on Fiscal Responsibility
Is targeting three percent of GDP a turning point, or another empty promise?
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Could a Rule-Bound Fed Constrain Congressional Spending?
The Fed’s lack of clear rules makes it vulnerable to outside pressure. A commitment to price stability could force Congress to confront its own excesses.
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Not 2008, But Still Dangerous: Private Credit’s Squeeze
Private credit is emerging as a key force tightening financial conditions. That feedback loop amplifies macro headwinds.
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Business Conditions Monthly January 2026
Consumer-level price pressures have eased, but upstream costs are building. Rising producer prices and higher input costs — particularly in metals and energy — suggest continued pipeline pressures.
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The Fed Sees Higher Inflation Coming — and May Cut Rates Anyway
Inflation is well above two percent, but rate paths haven’t moved. The disconnect suggests a shift in how much inflation the Fed is willing to tolerate.
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Monetary Policy Rules Suggest Fed Should Hold Steady in March
The federal funds rate is already lower than levels recommended by several well-known policy guidelines. Recent uncertainty does not justify further easing.
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Fed Officials Face Diverging Mandates
Evidence suggests that inflation is relatively widespread, job creation has weakened, the Fed will likely hold the policy rate steady.
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Inflation Edged Up in February, But Core Price Pressures Ease
The data suggest nominal spending and wage growth are stable, and easing policy too quickly could risk reigniting price pressures.
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Jumps 0.61 Percent in February 2026
Official CPI suggests moderating inflation, but our in-house index clocks the largest increase in 13 months. Affordability will worsen with the outbreak of war with Iran.
-
•
Redefining Inflation to Obscure Its Origins
By redefining inflation as consumer prices, we distort how we interpret policy, inequality, and markets.
-
•
Congress Is Moving the Goalposts on Fiscal Responsibility
Is targeting three percent of GDP a turning point, or another empty promise?
-
•
Could a Rule-Bound Fed Constrain Congressional Spending?
The Fed’s lack of clear rules makes it vulnerable to outside pressure. A commitment to price stability could force Congress to confront its own excesses.
-
•
Not 2008, But Still Dangerous: Private Credit’s Squeeze
Private credit is emerging as a key force tightening financial conditions. That feedback loop amplifies macro headwinds.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly January 2026
Consumer-level price pressures have eased, but upstream costs are building. Rising producer prices and higher input costs — particularly in metals and energy — suggest continued pipeline pressures.
-
•
The Fed Sees Higher Inflation Coming — and May Cut Rates Anyway
Inflation is well above two percent, but rate paths haven’t moved. The disconnect suggests a shift in how much inflation the Fed is willing to tolerate.
-
•
Monetary Policy Rules Suggest Fed Should Hold Steady in March
The federal funds rate is already lower than levels recommended by several well-known policy guidelines. Recent uncertainty does not justify further easing.
-
•
Fed Officials Face Diverging Mandates
Evidence suggests that inflation is relatively widespread, job creation has weakened, the Fed will likely hold the policy rate steady.
-
•
Inflation Edged Up in February, But Core Price Pressures Ease
The data suggest nominal spending and wage growth are stable, and easing policy too quickly could risk reigniting price pressures.
-
•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Jumps 0.61 Percent in February 2026
Official CPI suggests moderating inflation, but our in-house index clocks the largest increase in 13 months. Affordability will worsen with the outbreak of war with Iran.