Monetary Economics
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Notches a Slight 0.10% Gain in July 2025
After a third delay of China tariffs, rising prices, delayed policy effects, and a weakening job market make the Fed’s path to rate cuts uncertain.
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Fed Governor’s Labor Market Warning Validated by BLS Revision
The Fed waited for labor market softening to cut rates. Do BLS data reveal monetary policy is already too tight?
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No Return to the Old Balance Sheet, Fed’s Waller Says
One board member believes a larger balance sheet improves our systemic stability. How much is beyond the Fed’s control?
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Inflation Picked Up in June, as Tariffs Pass Through
June’s uptick is attributable to tariffs on foreign-made goods. The rate of inflation will stabilize, but higher prices are here to stay.
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Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Political Pressure
The Federal Open Market Committee resisted calls from President Trump and others to cut rates, apparently satisfied with employment levels and the pace of growth.
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IOUs to Inflation: The Realistic Limits of Magic Money Theory
Despite what Modern Monetary Theorists and other Fed fantasists would have you believe, we can’t print our way out of debt. Deficits will meet reality.
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When Doing Nothing Is Doing Harm: Powell’s Misstep on Tariffs and the Neutral Rate
The Fed’s passive tightening could have active economic consequences. Trade uncertainty is dragging down the neutral rate.
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Trump’s Trade War Undermines the Dollar’s Global Reserve Status
The president wants foreigners to hold investment dollars, and to spend those very same dollars buying US exports. It can’t be done.
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DC’s GENIUS Plan: Use Stablecoins to Soak Up Its Own Debt
The GENIUS Act requires that stablecoin issuers hold their assets in cash, short-term US Treasury securities, or as balances at the Fed. That increased demand for debt will keep borrowing costs down.
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•
Business Conditions Monthly May 2025
Investors are willing to risk a little more as trade war threats normalize. Some sectors show ongoing weakness, but economic activity sputtered forward.
-
•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Notches a Slight 0.10% Gain in July 2025
After a third delay of China tariffs, rising prices, delayed policy effects, and a weakening job market make the Fed’s path to rate cuts uncertain.
-
•
Fed Governor’s Labor Market Warning Validated by BLS Revision
The Fed waited for labor market softening to cut rates. Do BLS data reveal monetary policy is already too tight?
-
•
No Return to the Old Balance Sheet, Fed’s Waller Says
One board member believes a larger balance sheet improves our systemic stability. How much is beyond the Fed’s control?
-
•
Inflation Picked Up in June, as Tariffs Pass Through
June’s uptick is attributable to tariffs on foreign-made goods. The rate of inflation will stabilize, but higher prices are here to stay.
-
•
Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Political Pressure
The Federal Open Market Committee resisted calls from President Trump and others to cut rates, apparently satisfied with employment levels and the pace of growth.
-
•
IOUs to Inflation: The Realistic Limits of Magic Money Theory
Despite what Modern Monetary Theorists and other Fed fantasists would have you believe, we can’t print our way out of debt. Deficits will meet reality.
-
•
When Doing Nothing Is Doing Harm: Powell’s Misstep on Tariffs and the Neutral Rate
The Fed’s passive tightening could have active economic consequences. Trade uncertainty is dragging down the neutral rate.
-
•
Trump’s Trade War Undermines the Dollar’s Global Reserve Status
The president wants foreigners to hold investment dollars, and to spend those very same dollars buying US exports. It can’t be done.
-
•
DC’s GENIUS Plan: Use Stablecoins to Soak Up Its Own Debt
The GENIUS Act requires that stablecoin issuers hold their assets in cash, short-term US Treasury securities, or as balances at the Fed. That increased demand for debt will keep borrowing costs down.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly May 2025
Investors are willing to risk a little more as trade war threats normalize. Some sectors show ongoing weakness, but economic activity sputtered forward.