Monetary Economics
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Business Conditions Monthly April 2025
Hiring is slowing and consumer sentiment is souring, but households and small firms are responding positively to a pause in tariff escalations. The US economy is balancing on a narrowing ledge.
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Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Economic Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve board isn’t committing to rate cuts, voting to holding its policy interest rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. As inflation and employment trends stabilize, caution is warranted.
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Two Cheers (and a Warning) for May’s Inflation Slowdown
Central bankers are in a pickle. But the current, frustrating tradeoffs result from short-sighted fiscal policies of the past.
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Modest May 2025 Increase
Disinflationary momentum is building, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts this year. Tariff risks and corporate pricing warnings persist.
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Inflation Remained Low in April, But How Long Can Monetary Policy Remain Tight?
By undershooting its inflation target after clearly stating it would not do so, the Fed risks surprising the public—and perhaps triggering a recession.
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Physics Meets Finance: Theoretical Consequences of Man-Made Gold
Modern physics has managed to turn lead into gold. Is the end of scarcity in sight? Look to oil, rubber, and diamonds for clues.
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When Will The Fed Cut Interest Rates?
The Fed should seek to avoid its recent mistakes, and keep nominal spending on a stable trajectory. FOMC predicts rates will be 50 basis points lower by the end of 2025.
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April’s Prices Rose, But Inflation Cooled Overall
Energy costs prices pushed prices up, but the money supply is probably increasing as fast as it ought to.
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Continues to Rise in April 2025
Tariffs pushed some prices up in April, but falling service costs and an uncertain outlook make the inflation picture much murkier.
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•
Fed Holds Steady as Tariff Storm Looms
The Fed seems confident it can hold inflation near two percent, but the full impact of tariffs on prices and employment remains unknowable.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly April 2025
Hiring is slowing and consumer sentiment is souring, but households and small firms are responding positively to a pause in tariff escalations. The US economy is balancing on a narrowing ledge.
-
•
Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Economic Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve board isn’t committing to rate cuts, voting to holding its policy interest rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. As inflation and employment trends stabilize, caution is warranted.
-
•
Two Cheers (and a Warning) for May’s Inflation Slowdown
Central bankers are in a pickle. But the current, frustrating tradeoffs result from short-sighted fiscal policies of the past.
-
•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Modest May 2025 Increase
Disinflationary momentum is building, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts this year. Tariff risks and corporate pricing warnings persist.
-
•
Inflation Remained Low in April, But How Long Can Monetary Policy Remain Tight?
By undershooting its inflation target after clearly stating it would not do so, the Fed risks surprising the public—and perhaps triggering a recession.
-
•
Physics Meets Finance: Theoretical Consequences of Man-Made Gold
Modern physics has managed to turn lead into gold. Is the end of scarcity in sight? Look to oil, rubber, and diamonds for clues.
-
•
When Will The Fed Cut Interest Rates?
The Fed should seek to avoid its recent mistakes, and keep nominal spending on a stable trajectory. FOMC predicts rates will be 50 basis points lower by the end of 2025.
-
•
April’s Prices Rose, But Inflation Cooled Overall
Energy costs prices pushed prices up, but the money supply is probably increasing as fast as it ought to.
-
•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Continues to Rise in April 2025
Tariffs pushed some prices up in April, but falling service costs and an uncertain outlook make the inflation picture much murkier.
-
•
Fed Holds Steady as Tariff Storm Looms
The Fed seems confident it can hold inflation near two percent, but the full impact of tariffs on prices and employment remains unknowable.