Monetary Economics
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Inflation Remains Elevated. Is Money Actually Tight?
” Fed watchers expect the Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates steady when they meet on March 19-20. In light of the CPI data, that’s a defensible move.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Spikes 0.73 Percent
“While tailwinds from normalizing supply chains are cooling goods prices, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend. In particular, the February CPI readings strongly suggest that the January updraft was not anomalous.” ~Peter C. Earle
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The Fed (Almost) Ruined Black Friday
“A record $1.3 trillion in credit card debt may be masking a weaker economy than the top-line spending numbers suggest, as consumers accrue debt to maintain a standard of living being crushed by rising prices in housing, groceries, and energy.” ~Spence Purnell
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Does Argentina Have Enough Dollars to Dollarize?
“It’s not that Argentina lacks dollars. Rather, it is that the Argentine government lacks the will to commit to its dollarization plan.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
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Faster Growth and Interest Rates: Even Harder than You Think
“Higher rates could be a sign of loose money, not tight, depending on how far from the policy change we’re looking and how fast the market adapts.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
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Fed Admits It Was Wrong – Kind Of
“So rather than starting to tighten policy in the fourth quarter of ‘21, as Powell described, the Fed was implicitly loosening policy through May of ‘22.” ~Thomas L. Hogan
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Business Conditions Monthly December 2023
“Inflation expectations have edged higher, raising concerns about the erosion of purchasing power and living standards. In the lead-up to the November presidential elections, policymakers and market participants will closely monitor future economic data releases to gauge the trajectory of inflation and its implications for the broader economy.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Two Kinds of Transitory Inflation
“Team Transitory’s narrative just doesn’t cohere. Whether we’re trying to explain the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s, or the inflation of the past two years, we need to rely on demand-side mechanisms.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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An Inflation Resurgence, or Just Relative Price Changes?
“Microeconomic relative-price dynamics increasingly drive inflation measurements. That means the Fed should not be afraid to ease off the brakes.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.52 Percent in January 2024
“The January 2024 CPI report highlights the challenges of returning inflation to the Fed’s target range and suggests a bumpy road ahead.” ~Peter C. Earle
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•
Inflation Remains Elevated. Is Money Actually Tight?
” Fed watchers expect the Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates steady when they meet on March 19-20. In light of the CPI data, that’s a defensible move.” ~Alexander W. Salter
-
•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Spikes 0.73 Percent
“While tailwinds from normalizing supply chains are cooling goods prices, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend. In particular, the February CPI readings strongly suggest that the January updraft was not anomalous.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
The Fed (Almost) Ruined Black Friday
“A record $1.3 trillion in credit card debt may be masking a weaker economy than the top-line spending numbers suggest, as consumers accrue debt to maintain a standard of living being crushed by rising prices in housing, groceries, and energy.” ~Spence Purnell
-
•
Does Argentina Have Enough Dollars to Dollarize?
“It’s not that Argentina lacks dollars. Rather, it is that the Argentine government lacks the will to commit to its dollarization plan.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
-
•
Faster Growth and Interest Rates: Even Harder than You Think
“Higher rates could be a sign of loose money, not tight, depending on how far from the policy change we’re looking and how fast the market adapts.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
-
•
Fed Admits It Was Wrong – Kind Of
“So rather than starting to tighten policy in the fourth quarter of ‘21, as Powell described, the Fed was implicitly loosening policy through May of ‘22.” ~Thomas L. Hogan
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly December 2023
“Inflation expectations have edged higher, raising concerns about the erosion of purchasing power and living standards. In the lead-up to the November presidential elections, policymakers and market participants will closely monitor future economic data releases to gauge the trajectory of inflation and its implications for the broader economy.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
Two Kinds of Transitory Inflation
“Team Transitory’s narrative just doesn’t cohere. Whether we’re trying to explain the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s, or the inflation of the past two years, we need to rely on demand-side mechanisms.” ~Alexander W. Salter
-
•
An Inflation Resurgence, or Just Relative Price Changes?
“Microeconomic relative-price dynamics increasingly drive inflation measurements. That means the Fed should not be afraid to ease off the brakes.” ~Alexander W. Salter
-
•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.52 Percent in January 2024
“The January 2024 CPI report highlights the challenges of returning inflation to the Fed’s target range and suggests a bumpy road ahead.” ~Peter C. Earle