Business Conditions

“Payrolls posted a strong gain in July, though other labor market indicators are still questionable. Sustained price pressures, an intensifying Fed tightening cycle, and ongoing fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims rose again, continuing the recent upward trend. Sustained elevated rates of price increases, aggressive Fed tightening, and a softening labor market are major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Services-sector expansion continued in July. Ongoing labor and materials shortages and intense price pressures are still concerns, as are emerging signs of softening demand and a weakening economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Light-vehicle sales rose again in July but remain well below pre-pandemic ranges. Inventory shows signs of stabilization recently, but prices continued to rise.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Private-sector job openings and quits fell for a third consecutive month in June, adding to the evidence of a weakening economy. The outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

“The latest manufacturing survey suggests continued expansion but easing price pressures and uncertainty about the future. Persistently elevated price increases and an intensifying Fed policy tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Consumer sentiment ticked up in July but remains near record lows and consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Manufacturers’ new orders rose again in June, but much of it is from price increases. Rising prices, Fed policy tightening, and global turmoil are sustaining elevated risks.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims fell, but the trend remains upward. Sustained elevated rates of price increases, Fed tightening, and a softening labor market are major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Real GDP fell for a second consecutive quarter, but real private domestic demand has performed better, and core PCE price increases decelerated. Fed tightening, the war in Ukraine, and upcoming elections remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes