Business Conditions

“Payroll gains remained solid in June, though there are mounting signs of easing in the labor market. Sustained price pressures, an intensifying Fed tightening cycle, and ongoing fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims rose pushing the four-week average higher again. The combination of sustained elevated rates of price increases and softening labor market are becoming a major risk for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Private-sector job openings and quits fell in May. The effects of rising interest rates and consumer caution are becoming more apparent. The outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Services-sector expansion continued in June despite ongoing labor and materials shortages and intense price pressures. Some notes of caution were also starting to emerge. The outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Light-vehicle sales rose in June but remain well below pre-pandemic ranges. Assemblies fell in May as component shortages continue to restrain production. Inventory shows signs of stabilization recently, but prices continued to rise.” ~ Robert Hughes

“The latest manufacturing survey suggests supply and demand may be moving closer to balance. However, persistently elevated price increases and an intensifying Fed policy tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Personal income rose in May, but real disposable income and real consumer spending fell. The outlook for the economy remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims fell, but the four-week average continues on a modest upward trend. Sustained elevated price increases and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Consumer expectations sank again in June, as fears of high inflation grow. Elevated price pressures, fallout from Russian aggression in Ukraine, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle increase risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Manufacturers’ new orders rose again in May and remain near record highs. Continued strength for business investment is a positive sign for the economic outlook but risks remain elevated.” ~ Robert Hughes