Business Conditions

“Consumer expectations weakened again in February, pulling down overall consumer confidence. Continued expansion remains the likely course, but weaker consumer attitudes could become a headwind.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Housing permits were solid again in January. However, rising home prices and higher mortgage rates may be headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits ticked up and are slightly above the pre-pandemic level. Overall, claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison. Most data suggest the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Industrial output jumped in January, led by a weather-related surge in utility output. Modest gains across many other areas puts about 95 percent of industrial producers at or above pre-pandemic levels. While declining Omicron cases should reduce constraints on output, overall labor shortages remain a significant obstacle.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Retail sales rebounded in January and remain at a high level. However, some of the strong gains are likely due to price increases, making real gains less robust.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Consumer sentiment fell again in early February and is now below the lows seen in four of the last six recessions. Consumers are concerned about rising prices, government policies, and long-term economic prospects.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Payrolls growth was unexpectedly strong in January and revisions show more robust gains over the past year. The results support a positive outlook for growth and an eventual slowing of price increases, but upward price pressures may continue a while longer until production and logistical constraints are significantly reduced.” ~ Robert Hughes

“The services sector expanded in January, but Covid continues to impact operations. Shortages of labor and materials continue to restrain output and sustain upward pressure on prices, though cresting new cases of Covid may provide a small amount of relief.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell again, pulling back from a three-month high two weeks ago. Overall, claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison. Most data suggest the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes