Business Conditions

“Consumer expectations weakened again in March, but improved present views offset the decline, lifting overall consumer confidence. Elevated price pressures, Russian aggression in Ukraine, and a Fed tightening cycle increase risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Consumer sentiment fell again in March and is consistent with prior recessions. Consumers are concerned about rising prices, fallout from the war in Ukraine, and long-term economic prospects.” ~ Robert Hughes

“New orders for core capital goods fell in February though the level remains high. Continued strength for business investment is a positive sign for the economic outlook but risks remain elevated.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims fell to a multidecade low, indicating the labor market remains very tight. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a new Fed tightening cycle increase uncertainty.” ~ Robert Hughes

“New-home sales fell again in February and prices may be plateauing, though at a high level. Elevated prices and rising mortgage rates may further weaken demand, and combined with significant inventory, continue to weigh on prices.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Existing-home sales fell in February, but supply remains very tight. Shifting housing preferences, elevated prices, and rising mortgage rates are likely to impact demand over the coming months and quarters.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Industrial output rose in February, led by solid gains outside of energy and motor vehicles. However, labor and logistics issues continue while turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine represents a new wave of potential disruptions.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Housing permits were off in February but remain at a solid level. Rising home prices and higher mortgage rates are strengthening headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims fell slightly and remain at a very low level, suggesting the labor market remains tight. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine dramatically increases uncertainty.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Retail sales rose in February but fell after adjusting for prices. Ongoing labor and materials shortages, turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and an impending Fed tightening cycle all raise risks for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes