Business Conditions

“Consumer sentiment ended higher in April but remains consistent with prior recessions. Elevated risks are sustaining a high level of uncertainty for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weak headline GDP growth masks the resilience of private domestic demand. However, continued price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the war in Ukraine, and upcoming elections are boosting risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims continue to suggest a very tight labor market and is a support for consumers. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain significant risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“New-home sales fell again in March as prices and mortgage rates continue to rise. Elevated prices and rising mortgage rates may further weaken demand, and combined with significant inventory, put downward pressure on prices.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Manufacturers’ new orders rebounded in March and remain near record highs. Continued strength for business investment is a positive sign for the economic outlook but risks remain elevated.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Low weekly initial claims suggest a very tight labor market and is a support for consumers. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle are significant risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Existing-home sales fell again in March, but supply remains very tight. Shifting housing preferences, record-high prices, and surging mortgage rates are likely to impact demand over the coming months and quarters.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Single-family starts and permits were off in March while multifamily rose; all remain at solid levels. Surging mortgage rates and elevated home prices are strengthening headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Industrial output rose again in March. However, a range of economic and geopolitical issues continue to restrain the ability of manufacturers to meet the significantly higher demand that has emerged following the lockdown recession.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Consumer sentiment bounced higher in early April but remains consistent with prior recessions. Expectations jumped on a decline in gas prices, but economic risks remain elevated. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes