Business Conditions

“Retail sales rose in March but fell after adjusting for price changes. Ongoing labor and materials shortages, turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and a new Fed tightening cycle all raise risks for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims ticked up but remain near a multidecade low, indicating a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle have boosted risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Services-sector expansion broadened in March as labor shortages eased slightly but materials shortages and price pressures continue. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a new source of price pressure and disruption to the global economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Light-vehicle sales fell again in March. Assemblies remain weak as component shortages continue to restrain production, but inventory and prices show signs of stabilization recently, though at extreme levels. Global supply chains remain disrupted with the Russian invasion of Ukraine adding to global turmoil.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Manufacturing-sector demand expanded at a slower pace in March and price pressures intensified. Ongoing labor and logistical issues continue to restrain output and recent events in Ukraine may be yet another source of disruption and further delay the return to normalcy.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Payroll gains remained strong in March, providing support for growth. However, sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, and turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Personal income rose in February but real income excluding transfers fell, suggesting a threat to real spending. The outlook for the economy has become highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims ticked up but remain near a multidecade low, indicating a very tight labor market. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle have boosted risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Job openings and quits remained near record levels in February. Labor difficulties, material shortages, and logistical issues as well as high inflation, a newly initiated Fed tightening cycle, and global political and economic turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are raising the risks for the U.S. economy.” ~ Robert Hughes