Business Conditions

“Retail sales rose in April and revised data suggest a stronger trend recently. However, significant threats to the economy remain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Consumer sentiment sank in early May and is consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims have trended slightly higher recently but continue to suggest a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Payroll gains remained strong in April, providing support for growth. However, sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and renewed lockdowns in China are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims rose to the highest level since February but continue to suggest a very tight labor market. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Light-vehicle sales rose in April but remain well below pre-pandemic ranges. Assemblies rose in March, but component shortages continue to restrain production. Inventory and prices show signs of stabilization recently, though at extreme levels.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Services-sector expansion continued in April, but labor and materials shortages are sustaining price pressures. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, and Fed tightening are threats to the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Private-sector job openings and quits rose to new record highs in March. Labor difficulties, material shortages, and logistical issues as well as high inflation, a new Fed tightening cycle, and global economic disruptions are threatening the U.S. economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Recent trends in the manufacturing sector continued in April as demand remained robust but price pressures, labor and materials shortages, and logistical issues continue to be challenges. Recent events in Ukraine and China are compounding the difficulties.” ~ Robert Hughes