Daily Economy
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Initial Claims Jump and Manufacturing New Orders Fall
Initial claims jumped and manufacturing new orders fell in the latest reports as the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on economic activity spread.
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What Coronavirus Teaches Us About Human Connection
Even in self-imposed isolation, the keen intellects at AIER have managed to reach people across the globe, providing unique perspectives and key economic insights to those who most want and need it. A communicable virus has nothing on communicable ideas.
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The Difference Between a Recession and a Crack-Up
There was never in 2020 an economic crisis born of a spreading virus; rather a spreading virus proved oxygen for politicians on all levels on the way to them forcing contraction on an economy that, if large and growing larger, would be most capable of slaying the virus.
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The US Coronavirus Death Rate Is Falling, and Germany’s More So
Why would the U.S. death rate fall so much over just a few days? The answer is that as more people are tested for the virus, the death rate falls because it becomes more accurate.
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Good Reasons to Doubt the Estimate of COVID-19 Deaths
Many popular accounts mistake an implausible upper-bound estimate for the most likely outcome. The underlying study actually suggests the number of deaths will be much lower.
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The Economy Could Indeed Roar Back (Video)
If we come out of this, it will be due to markets. FOX Business’ Neil Cavuto hosted me and tax attorney Rebecca Walser to discuss how crucial it is for the financial markets to remain open and how the government shutdown will affect small businesses.
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Falling Mortgage Rates May Support Housing Activity…Eventually
Near-record low mortgage rates may provide some support for housing activity eventually. However, disruptions from COVID-19 are likely to dominate economic activity for March and the second quarter.
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If You Bail Out Everyone, You Bail Out No One
It’s sad any of this needs to be said or written, but it cannot be stressed enough that government outlays are a consequence of growth that’s already taken place. The federal budget in the U.S. is the largest in the world, and the U.S. Treasury can borrow trillions more, precisely because Congress and Treasury are backed…
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An Epistemic Crisis
The ray of hope is that reliable tests are going to be distributed widely in the coming days, and that will solve the great epistemic crisis. There is hope and light at the end of this very dark tunnel of ignorance.
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•
Weak Results for Retail Sales in February
Retail sales were broadly weak in February and are likely to show significant weakness as the effects of quarantines and lockdowns materialize, increasing the risk of recession later this year.
-
•
Initial Claims Jump and Manufacturing New Orders Fall
Initial claims jumped and manufacturing new orders fell in the latest reports as the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on economic activity spread.
-
•
What Coronavirus Teaches Us About Human Connection
Even in self-imposed isolation, the keen intellects at AIER have managed to reach people across the globe, providing unique perspectives and key economic insights to those who most want and need it. A communicable virus has nothing on communicable ideas.
-
•
The Difference Between a Recession and a Crack-Up
There was never in 2020 an economic crisis born of a spreading virus; rather a spreading virus proved oxygen for politicians on all levels on the way to them forcing contraction on an economy that, if large and growing larger, would be most capable of slaying the virus.
-
•
The US Coronavirus Death Rate Is Falling, and Germany’s More So
Why would the U.S. death rate fall so much over just a few days? The answer is that as more people are tested for the virus, the death rate falls because it becomes more accurate.
-
•
Good Reasons to Doubt the Estimate of COVID-19 Deaths
Many popular accounts mistake an implausible upper-bound estimate for the most likely outcome. The underlying study actually suggests the number of deaths will be much lower.
-
•
The Economy Could Indeed Roar Back (Video)
If we come out of this, it will be due to markets. FOX Business’ Neil Cavuto hosted me and tax attorney Rebecca Walser to discuss how crucial it is for the financial markets to remain open and how the government shutdown will affect small businesses.
-
•
Falling Mortgage Rates May Support Housing Activity…Eventually
Near-record low mortgage rates may provide some support for housing activity eventually. However, disruptions from COVID-19 are likely to dominate economic activity for March and the second quarter.
-
•
If You Bail Out Everyone, You Bail Out No One
It’s sad any of this needs to be said or written, but it cannot be stressed enough that government outlays are a consequence of growth that’s already taken place. The federal budget in the U.S. is the largest in the world, and the U.S. Treasury can borrow trillions more, precisely because Congress and Treasury are backed…
-
•
An Epistemic Crisis
The ray of hope is that reliable tests are going to be distributed widely in the coming days, and that will solve the great epistemic crisis. There is hope and light at the end of this very dark tunnel of ignorance.
-
•
Weak Results for Retail Sales in February
Retail sales were broadly weak in February and are likely to show significant weakness as the effects of quarantines and lockdowns materialize, increasing the risk of recession later this year.