Daily Economy
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Sour Start to the Long Weekend
Amid good signs like the strong employment report last week, we have also seen some “yellow flag” data sets on the economy in recent weeks. Today, we received more of those indicators that give us reason for pause. Today’s retail sales report was below expectations, as was the data from the Federal Reserve on industrial…
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Bard Students Lend a Hand at AIER
This January we have two students from Bard College at Annandale-On-Hudson as AIER interns during the January intersession. Residential Winter Term, which is part of our Academic Year Internship program, premièred last year. Even though students’ time with us is limited (only three weeks), we are confident that they will gain some valuable insights into…
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From Deep in Winter, Signs of an Economic Spring
As job openings and business confidence increase, there are signs that the pace of hiring and wage growth could quicken in the coming months, says our senior research fellow, Bob Hughes.
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Social Security: Straightening Out Misconceptions
We are all reasonably familiar with the idea of Social Security: You pay money in while you’re working and you get something back when you’re retired. But the system is complex, and even the most basic rules are misunderstood by a large segment of the population.
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Why Inflation May Pick Up in 2016
In a recent article, the Wall Street Journal reviewed what economic forecasters got right and wrong in 2015. Among what they got wrong is the inflation forecast. In December 2014, Fed officials forecast an inflation rate of between 1 and 1.6 percent, but it turned out to be only 0.4 percent by November (December inflation…
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A Strong Employment Report
A strong December payroll gain plus upward revisions to November and October suggest the economy is entering 2016 with good momentum.
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•
Updating How We Predict Recessions
This institute has long been known for its work in identifying turning points in the economy, including predicting recessions. And we have a pretty good track record in that regard since we started studying business cycles in 1953. But such work requires vigilance, and changing with the times as necessary.
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Eight Market Predictions for 2016
Markets go up and down daily. For every buyer, there is a seller. But there is a broader historical point here. Even during periods of relative growth, there are negative stretches.
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Putting a Price on Good Weather
It has been an uncharacteristically warm fall and early winter here in the Northeast, and I for one was very happy to forego a White Christmas in order to have a warm one. But how much does the weather matter to average Americans, and how does it affect the cost of living?
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My Hopes for 2016: Back to Business Basics
Here’s hoping that 2016 brings back an economy that relies more on business fundamentals, and less on the machinations of technocrats in Washington. With the drama of the first Fed rate hike behind us, perhaps business leaders and investors can focus on the things that make American companies competitive for the long haul.
-
•
Sour Start to the Long Weekend
Amid good signs like the strong employment report last week, we have also seen some “yellow flag” data sets on the economy in recent weeks. Today, we received more of those indicators that give us reason for pause. Today’s retail sales report was below expectations, as was the data from the Federal Reserve on industrial…
-
•
Bard Students Lend a Hand at AIER
This January we have two students from Bard College at Annandale-On-Hudson as AIER interns during the January intersession. Residential Winter Term, which is part of our Academic Year Internship program, premièred last year. Even though students’ time with us is limited (only three weeks), we are confident that they will gain some valuable insights into…
-
•
From Deep in Winter, Signs of an Economic Spring
As job openings and business confidence increase, there are signs that the pace of hiring and wage growth could quicken in the coming months, says our senior research fellow, Bob Hughes.
-
•
Social Security: Straightening Out Misconceptions
We are all reasonably familiar with the idea of Social Security: You pay money in while you’re working and you get something back when you’re retired. But the system is complex, and even the most basic rules are misunderstood by a large segment of the population.
-
•
Why Inflation May Pick Up in 2016
In a recent article, the Wall Street Journal reviewed what economic forecasters got right and wrong in 2015. Among what they got wrong is the inflation forecast. In December 2014, Fed officials forecast an inflation rate of between 1 and 1.6 percent, but it turned out to be only 0.4 percent by November (December inflation…
-
•
A Strong Employment Report
A strong December payroll gain plus upward revisions to November and October suggest the economy is entering 2016 with good momentum.
-
•
Updating How We Predict Recessions
This institute has long been known for its work in identifying turning points in the economy, including predicting recessions. And we have a pretty good track record in that regard since we started studying business cycles in 1953. But such work requires vigilance, and changing with the times as necessary.
-
•
Eight Market Predictions for 2016
Markets go up and down daily. For every buyer, there is a seller. But there is a broader historical point here. Even during periods of relative growth, there are negative stretches.
-
•
Putting a Price on Good Weather
It has been an uncharacteristically warm fall and early winter here in the Northeast, and I for one was very happy to forego a White Christmas in order to have a warm one. But how much does the weather matter to average Americans, and how does it affect the cost of living?
-
•
My Hopes for 2016: Back to Business Basics
Here’s hoping that 2016 brings back an economy that relies more on business fundamentals, and less on the machinations of technocrats in Washington. With the drama of the first Fed rate hike behind us, perhaps business leaders and investors can focus on the things that make American companies competitive for the long haul.