Central Banking
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Don’t Push the Policy Button!
Economists design “optimal” interventions with caveats and disclaimers. Politicians treat them like irresistible big red buttons.
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The Fed Should Hold Steady in January
Cutting rates further risks overstimulating demand, when inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s two-percent target.
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The Powell Affair and the Limits of The Fed’s Immunity
The DOJ’s investigation is ugly politics, but we might welcome a test of whether central bankers are subject to the same oversight as everyone else.
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The Regulatory Pendulum: Why Financial Rules Keep Missing the Mark
Until policymakers accept that financial regulation shifts risk rather than eliminates it, we will keep cycling through crisis, overreaction, unintended consequences, and the next crisis.
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Business Conditions Monthly: October Showed Slowing Inflation, Waning Momentum
Job growth is slowing, unemployment is rising, and affordability pressures persist heading into the critical holiday season. Economic resilience is at risk.
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Inflation Retreats from Late-Summer Highs, Nears Fed Target
Headline and core inflation both cooled over the past two months, led by softening energy costs. Missing data complicates projections.
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The Fed Cut Rates Again–What Else Is New?
Powell’s remarks highlighted the inherent difficulty of balancing inflation and employment under the Fed’s current dual mandate.
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Denying the Affordability Crisis Won’t Change the Data
American households are hurting. With wage growth lagging and inflation compounding, no amount of presidential bluster can mask the math.
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A Rare Split at the Fed — and Why It Makes Sense
Both hawks and doves cite major rules to justify their stance. But the division inside the Fed isn’t dysfunction — it’s a sign of officials taking both mandates seriously.
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•
Business Conditions Monthly September 2025: Data Blackout
The Fed enters its most consequential meeting of the year blinded by shutdown data gaps, armed instead with private proxies and guesswork.
-
•
Don’t Push the Policy Button!
Economists design “optimal” interventions with caveats and disclaimers. Politicians treat them like irresistible big red buttons.
-
•
The Fed Should Hold Steady in January
Cutting rates further risks overstimulating demand, when inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s two-percent target.
-
•
The Powell Affair and the Limits of The Fed’s Immunity
The DOJ’s investigation is ugly politics, but we might welcome a test of whether central bankers are subject to the same oversight as everyone else.
-
•
The Regulatory Pendulum: Why Financial Rules Keep Missing the Mark
Until policymakers accept that financial regulation shifts risk rather than eliminates it, we will keep cycling through crisis, overreaction, unintended consequences, and the next crisis.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly: October Showed Slowing Inflation, Waning Momentum
Job growth is slowing, unemployment is rising, and affordability pressures persist heading into the critical holiday season. Economic resilience is at risk.
-
•
Inflation Retreats from Late-Summer Highs, Nears Fed Target
Headline and core inflation both cooled over the past two months, led by softening energy costs. Missing data complicates projections.
-
•
The Fed Cut Rates Again–What Else Is New?
Powell’s remarks highlighted the inherent difficulty of balancing inflation and employment under the Fed’s current dual mandate.
-
•
Denying the Affordability Crisis Won’t Change the Data
American households are hurting. With wage growth lagging and inflation compounding, no amount of presidential bluster can mask the math.
-
•
A Rare Split at the Fed — and Why It Makes Sense
Both hawks and doves cite major rules to justify their stance. But the division inside the Fed isn’t dysfunction — it’s a sign of officials taking both mandates seriously.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly September 2025: Data Blackout
The Fed enters its most consequential meeting of the year blinded by shutdown data gaps, armed instead with private proxies and guesswork.