Financial Markets
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Not 2008, But Still Dangerous: Private Credit’s Squeeze
Private credit is emerging as a key force tightening financial conditions. That feedback loop amplifies macro headwinds.
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Business Conditions Monthly January 2026
Consumer-level price pressures have eased, but upstream costs are building. Rising producer prices and higher input costs — particularly in metals and energy — suggest continued pipeline pressures.
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Monetary Policy Rules Suggest Fed Should Hold Steady in March
The federal funds rate is already lower than levels recommended by several well-known policy guidelines. Recent uncertainty does not justify further easing.
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Inflation Edged Up in February, But Core Price Pressures Ease
The data suggest nominal spending and wage growth are stable, and easing policy too quickly could risk reigniting price pressures.
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How Concerning Are the February Jobs Numbers?
Slow job growth is expected when we remain near full employment and the working-age population is growing slowly.
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Milei’s Argentina: Between Liberation and the Institutional Trap
As the human face of shock therapy, Javier Milei faces a difficult path attempting to reform a state long dominated by entrenched interests.
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Worries Spread in Private Credit Markets
Risk migrated outside traditional banks, but insolvencies and widening credit spreads are raising questions about leverage and liquidity strain system-wide.
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Why Do Investors Keep Buying Century Bonds?
Investors buying 100-year bonds are making a bold wager on inflation, monetary policy, and financial stability.
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What Do Consumers Know That GDP Aggregates Don’t?
Rising costs, reduced mobility, and policy uncertainty may explain why households feel squeezed even when headline growth is good.
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•
Business Conditions Monthly December 2025
Capital spending in manufacturing, energy, and AI-related sectors are nudging growth forward amid rising fiscal uncertainty and a cautious Fed.
-
•
Not 2008, But Still Dangerous: Private Credit’s Squeeze
Private credit is emerging as a key force tightening financial conditions. That feedback loop amplifies macro headwinds.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly January 2026
Consumer-level price pressures have eased, but upstream costs are building. Rising producer prices and higher input costs — particularly in metals and energy — suggest continued pipeline pressures.
-
•
Monetary Policy Rules Suggest Fed Should Hold Steady in March
The federal funds rate is already lower than levels recommended by several well-known policy guidelines. Recent uncertainty does not justify further easing.
-
•
Inflation Edged Up in February, But Core Price Pressures Ease
The data suggest nominal spending and wage growth are stable, and easing policy too quickly could risk reigniting price pressures.
-
•
How Concerning Are the February Jobs Numbers?
Slow job growth is expected when we remain near full employment and the working-age population is growing slowly.
-
•
Milei’s Argentina: Between Liberation and the Institutional Trap
As the human face of shock therapy, Javier Milei faces a difficult path attempting to reform a state long dominated by entrenched interests.
-
•
Worries Spread in Private Credit Markets
Risk migrated outside traditional banks, but insolvencies and widening credit spreads are raising questions about leverage and liquidity strain system-wide.
-
•
Why Do Investors Keep Buying Century Bonds?
Investors buying 100-year bonds are making a bold wager on inflation, monetary policy, and financial stability.
-
•
What Do Consumers Know That GDP Aggregates Don’t?
Rising costs, reduced mobility, and policy uncertainty may explain why households feel squeezed even when headline growth is good.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly December 2025
Capital spending in manufacturing, energy, and AI-related sectors are nudging growth forward amid rising fiscal uncertainty and a cautious Fed.