Monetary Economics
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The Price of Fed Silence
When the Fed withholds information, markets don’t stop searching — they simply reward those with privileged access.
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July Inflation Rises, But Weakening Labor Complicates Fed’s Choice
The Fed is caught between cooling labor conditions and persistent demand, as nominal spending growth remains above its pre-pandemic pace.
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AIER Everyday Price Index Posts July Dip as Inflation Pressures Cool
Our price index notes modest deflation as lower fuel costs offset increases elsewhere, strengthening the case for stable Fed rates in September.
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Fed’s Task Force Should Fix What It Targets
A nominal spending target would spare The Fed guessing about the causes of inflation. The Chairman’s new task force could apply a rule instead.
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Warsh Wants the Federal Reserve to Rethink the Rules
The new chairman has long argued the Fed’s own institutional habits undermine sound money. His blueprint suggests key reforms.
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The Fed Is Expected to Hold Rates. The Rules Say It Shouldn’t
If the Fed leaves rates unchanged this week, the September meeting will take on added importance.
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Business Conditions Monthly May 2026
Leading indicators improved in May, but coincident activity softened and lagging measures deteriorated sharply. The economy is still balanced, but on a narrowing base.
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Welcome to Trillionistan. Don’t Get Comfortable.
Not all trillions — debts, valuations, investments — are created equal. Huge nominal numbers often obscure the institutions and incentives that produced them.
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June Inflation Slowed as Energy Prices Fell
Markets sharply reduced the odds of a July rate increase after June CPI showed broad-based moderation in prices.
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•
The Fed Needs Independence, Not Immunity
Monetary policy deserves insulation from politics, but regulation and emergency lending powers may not. Can Congress and the Courts differentiate?
-
•
The Price of Fed Silence
When the Fed withholds information, markets don’t stop searching — they simply reward those with privileged access.
-
•
July Inflation Rises, But Weakening Labor Complicates Fed’s Choice
The Fed is caught between cooling labor conditions and persistent demand, as nominal spending growth remains above its pre-pandemic pace.
-
•
AIER Everyday Price Index Posts July Dip as Inflation Pressures Cool
Our price index notes modest deflation as lower fuel costs offset increases elsewhere, strengthening the case for stable Fed rates in September.
-
•
Fed’s Task Force Should Fix What It Targets
A nominal spending target would spare The Fed guessing about the causes of inflation. The Chairman’s new task force could apply a rule instead.
-
•
Warsh Wants the Federal Reserve to Rethink the Rules
The new chairman has long argued the Fed’s own institutional habits undermine sound money. His blueprint suggests key reforms.
-
•
The Fed Is Expected to Hold Rates. The Rules Say It Shouldn’t
If the Fed leaves rates unchanged this week, the September meeting will take on added importance.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly May 2026
Leading indicators improved in May, but coincident activity softened and lagging measures deteriorated sharply. The economy is still balanced, but on a narrowing base.
-
•
Welcome to Trillionistan. Don’t Get Comfortable.
Not all trillions — debts, valuations, investments — are created equal. Huge nominal numbers often obscure the institutions and incentives that produced them.
-
•
June Inflation Slowed as Energy Prices Fell
Markets sharply reduced the odds of a July rate increase after June CPI showed broad-based moderation in prices.
-
•
The Fed Needs Independence, Not Immunity
Monetary policy deserves insulation from politics, but regulation and emergency lending powers may not. Can Congress and the Courts differentiate?