Monetary Economics
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The Fed Has a Groupthink Problem. Warsh Can Fix It
Evidence shows groupthink has produced suboptimal monetary policy. Kevin Warsh’s out-of-sync views could bring much-needed diversity to the Fed.
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Inflation Edged Up in February, But Core Price Pressures Ease
The data suggest nominal spending and wage growth are stable, and easing policy too quickly could risk reigniting price pressures.
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Jumps 0.61 Percent in February 2026
Official CPI suggests moderating inflation, but our in-house index clocks the largest increase in 13 months. Affordability will worsen with the outbreak of war with Iran.
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Soundness, Trust, and the Real Case Against Fiat Money
The strongest objections to fiat money are moral and institutional, not legal. Inflating a currency erodes trust over time, but it isn’t counterfeiting.
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How Concerning Are the February Jobs Numbers?
Slow job growth is expected when we remain near full employment and the working-age population is growing slowly.
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Milei’s Argentina: Between Liberation and the Institutional Trap
As the human face of shock therapy, Javier Milei faces a difficult path attempting to reform a state long dominated by entrenched interests.
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Business Conditions Monthly December 2025
Capital spending in manufacturing, energy, and AI-related sectors are nudging growth forward amid rising fiscal uncertainty and a cautious Fed.
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Delayed Data Unlikely to Resolve Disagreements at Fed
Fresh data confirm lingering inflation, but data disruptions, policy shocks, and political pressures are complicating the Fed’s next move.
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Indebted to the Printing Press: Fiscal Dominance Is No Longer Theoretical
As debt-service costs surge, deficits pressure the Fed in ways that threaten long-term price stability. Pandemic stimulus has given way to structural imbalance.
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Economic Data Revisions Show the Limits of Real-Time Measurement, Not Malfeasance
Revisions are not a failure of economic statistics — they are the tradeoff of receiving a rough but timely signal.
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•
The Fed Has a Groupthink Problem. Warsh Can Fix It
Evidence shows groupthink has produced suboptimal monetary policy. Kevin Warsh’s out-of-sync views could bring much-needed diversity to the Fed.
-
•
Inflation Edged Up in February, But Core Price Pressures Ease
The data suggest nominal spending and wage growth are stable, and easing policy too quickly could risk reigniting price pressures.
-
•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Jumps 0.61 Percent in February 2026
Official CPI suggests moderating inflation, but our in-house index clocks the largest increase in 13 months. Affordability will worsen with the outbreak of war with Iran.
-
•
Soundness, Trust, and the Real Case Against Fiat Money
The strongest objections to fiat money are moral and institutional, not legal. Inflating a currency erodes trust over time, but it isn’t counterfeiting.
-
•
How Concerning Are the February Jobs Numbers?
Slow job growth is expected when we remain near full employment and the working-age population is growing slowly.
-
•
Milei’s Argentina: Between Liberation and the Institutional Trap
As the human face of shock therapy, Javier Milei faces a difficult path attempting to reform a state long dominated by entrenched interests.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly December 2025
Capital spending in manufacturing, energy, and AI-related sectors are nudging growth forward amid rising fiscal uncertainty and a cautious Fed.
-
•
Delayed Data Unlikely to Resolve Disagreements at Fed
Fresh data confirm lingering inflation, but data disruptions, policy shocks, and political pressures are complicating the Fed’s next move.
-
•
Indebted to the Printing Press: Fiscal Dominance Is No Longer Theoretical
As debt-service costs surge, deficits pressure the Fed in ways that threaten long-term price stability. Pandemic stimulus has given way to structural imbalance.
-
•
Economic Data Revisions Show the Limits of Real-Time Measurement, Not Malfeasance
Revisions are not a failure of economic statistics — they are the tradeoff of receiving a rough but timely signal.