What Will The Stimulus Stimulate?

“We shouldnโ€™t be surprised that what ultimately emerged was a dogโ€™s breakfast of giveaways for special interests. Thatโ€™s the nature of the political beast. As we continue to cede power to enormous rent-creating operations called governments, we shouldnโ€™t be surprised by the results.” ~ Art Carden

Amid much fanfare (and followed by much outrage once people saw what was in it), Congress passed a โ€œstimulusโ€ bill that extended unemployment benefits and provided for $600 Economic Impact Payments for each person subject to some income qualifications.

My Forbes colleague Lisa Rowan tells you โ€œEverything You Need to Knowโ€ about the new round of Economic Impact Payments. Here are a few things you might not need to know or even want to know about the stimulus package but that I think you should know.

The Economic Impact Payments can Help People Manage Cash Flows in an Uncertain Time.ย Responses to the Covid pandemic (like lockdowns) have literally forced a lot of firms out of business and a lot of workers out of work, and itโ€™s hard to pay your bills when you donโ€™t have income. Putting everything on a credit card for almost a year is one โ€œsolution,โ€ but itโ€™s certainly not an attractive one (hence the quotation marks). The EIPs shift peopleโ€™s tax liability from 2020-21 to some point in the future and make it easier for them to pay the bills in the short run.

Itโ€™s not really a โ€œstimulus.โ€ I should just get used to the fact that โ€œstimulusโ€ is now journalistic and social media shorthand for โ€œany time Congress directs the Treasury to write a lot of checks.โ€ If lockdowns, distancing protocols, and other restrictions are shutting down big chunks of the economy, then thereโ€™s not much room to expand production by putting more money in consumersโ€™ hands. Aggregate supply shocks rather than aggregate demand shocks are the real problem.

Even if itโ€™s a โ€œstimulus,โ€ it might not stimulate much.ย Thereโ€™s an idea in economics called โ€œRicardian Equivalenceโ€ that explains why fiscal policy isnโ€™t likely to be as effective as we might think. Itโ€™s named after David Ricardo, a 19th century economist who also explainedย the law of comparative advantage.

Congress conducts expansionary fiscal policy by cutting taxes or increasing government spending. Taxpayers, however, know that an increase in the budget deficit today will require higher taxes tomorrow. If they act in accordance with something calledย Ricardian equivalence, they save todayโ€™s tax cuts or transfer payments in anticipation of tomorrowโ€™s tax increase. Not everyone does this, of course, but it limits what the government can do with fiscal policy.ย In a study of what people did with their CARES Act stimulus payments, economists Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Michael Weber explained that people used about 30% of their stimulus checks to pay down debt, saved another 30%, and spent 40%.

I suspect a graduate student somewhere started a dissertation on Ricardian equivalence and Economic Impact Payments not long after Congress passed the package. If youโ€™re a graduate student looking for a dissertation topic, might I suggest โ€œRicardian Equivalence and Fiscal Policy: Evidence from 2020 Covid Pandemic Stimulus Paymentsโ€?

The Stimulus Showed Us How Politics Works.ย I was about to write โ€œpolitics at its worst,โ€ but this wasnโ€™t really politics at its best or worst. It was just politics. We shouldnโ€™t be surprised that what ultimately emerged was a dogโ€™s breakfast of giveaways for special interests. Thatโ€™s the nature of the political beast. Contrary to what a protest sign might have told you, the system is not broken. Contrary to what another protest sign might have told you, the system was not โ€œdesigned this way.โ€ The outcomes we get, to borrow from the Scottish Enlightenmentโ€™s Adam Ferguson, are the products of human action even though they are not the product of human design. As Donald Boudreaux once put it, โ€œIf Rents Can Be Created, They Will be Sought.โ€ As we continue to cede power to enormous rent-creating operations called governments, we shouldnโ€™t be surprised by the results.

Reprinted from Forbes



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