Business Conditions
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Business Conditions Monthly November 2024
US economic conditions are improving and poised for growth. But the disruptive potential of tariffs looms large.
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Business Conditions Monthly October 2024
A cautiously optimistic outlook for 2025 is tempered by risks of serious disruption: tariffs, faltering disinflation, fiscal disputes, and stratospheric equity valuations.
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Business Conditions Monthly September 2024
Economic growth in the months ahead will hinge on lagging consumption, and developments in labor markets and monetary policy.
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Business Conditions Monthly August 2024
A soft landing appears increasingly viable. But we won’t know until November’s political dust settles.
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Business Conditions Monthly July 2024
“The key question, moving forward, is whether the Federal Reserve’s shift to accommodation will be sufficient to counteract the emerging signs of economic contraction.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly June 2024
“While the Federal Reserve’s progress in controlling inflation may provide the latitude needed to begin rate cuts aimed at supporting employment…the United States has either entered, or is on the verge of entering, a recession.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly May 2024
“Ongoing data noise driven by pandemic policies, unstable prices, Fed rate hikes, consumer fatigue, and stubborn disinflation early in the year, in combination, broadly suggest an economy experiencing mixed signals.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Sense and Nonsense on Petrodollars
Last week several reports suggested the termination of a US-Saudi petrodollar agreement, and speculated a Saudi Arabian move to sell oil on world markets in various currencies, including the Chinese yuan. The accounts were rife with inaccuracies: the Saudis’ have transacted in non-dollar currencies for decades, and there has never been a formal treaty, much…
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Business Conditions Monthly March 2024
“We remain cautious, as economic statistics have been both volatile and reflective of highly unusual underlying conditions since pandemic policies were lifted three years ago.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly February 2024
“Amidst mixed economic data reminiscent of most of the past two years, there are pockets of strength which are nevertheless overshadowed by inflation concerns and speculation regarding monetary policy actions in the coming quarter or two.” ~Peter C. Earle
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•
Business Conditions Monthly November 2024
US economic conditions are improving and poised for growth. But the disruptive potential of tariffs looms large.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly October 2024
A cautiously optimistic outlook for 2025 is tempered by risks of serious disruption: tariffs, faltering disinflation, fiscal disputes, and stratospheric equity valuations.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly September 2024
Economic growth in the months ahead will hinge on lagging consumption, and developments in labor markets and monetary policy.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly August 2024
A soft landing appears increasingly viable. But we won’t know until November’s political dust settles.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly July 2024
“The key question, moving forward, is whether the Federal Reserve’s shift to accommodation will be sufficient to counteract the emerging signs of economic contraction.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly June 2024
“While the Federal Reserve’s progress in controlling inflation may provide the latitude needed to begin rate cuts aimed at supporting employment…the United States has either entered, or is on the verge of entering, a recession.” ~Peter C. Earle
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•
Business Conditions Monthly May 2024
“Ongoing data noise driven by pandemic policies, unstable prices, Fed rate hikes, consumer fatigue, and stubborn disinflation early in the year, in combination, broadly suggest an economy experiencing mixed signals.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
Sense and Nonsense on Petrodollars
Last week several reports suggested the termination of a US-Saudi petrodollar agreement, and speculated a Saudi Arabian move to sell oil on world markets in various currencies, including the Chinese yuan. The accounts were rife with inaccuracies: the Saudis’ have transacted in non-dollar currencies for decades, and there has never been a formal treaty, much…
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly March 2024
“We remain cautious, as economic statistics have been both volatile and reflective of highly unusual underlying conditions since pandemic policies were lifted three years ago.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly February 2024
“Amidst mixed economic data reminiscent of most of the past two years, there are pockets of strength which are nevertheless overshadowed by inflation concerns and speculation regarding monetary policy actions in the coming quarter or two.” ~Peter C. Earle