Business Conditions
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Business Conditions Monthly January 2024
“In addition to a softening labor market and US consumer activity finally appearing to hit a wall, the potential for shocks of an endogenous or exogenous nature elevated.” ~Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Spikes 0.73 Percent
“While tailwinds from normalizing supply chains are cooling goods prices, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend. In particular, the February CPI readings strongly suggest that the January updraft was not anomalous.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly December 2023
“Inflation expectations have edged higher, raising concerns about the erosion of purchasing power and living standards. In the lead-up to the November presidential elections, policymakers and market participants will closely monitor future economic data releases to gauge the trajectory of inflation and its implications for the broader economy.” ~Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.52 Percent in January 2024
“The January 2024 CPI report highlights the challenges of returning inflation to the Fed’s target range and suggests a bumpy road ahead.” ~Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Ends 2023 with Third Consecutive Monthly Decline
“The recent reduction in disinflationary pressures related to core goods, which had been a significant factor in easing price pressures in recent months, seems to have diminished.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly November 2023
“In light of expectations of falling demand and the increased vulnerability of the US economy to geopolitical shocks, our prediction of a US recession by September 2024 stands.” ~Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Largest Decline in 2023
“While the likelihood of another rate hike in the final FOMC meeting of 2023 this week is low, the slowing rate of disinflation and stubbornly elevated prices suggest that speculation regarding the start of rate cuts is, at best, early.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly October 2023
“While we continue to impartially and vigilantly assess incoming data, our current analysis still points to a recession occurring before September 2024 as the most probable scenario.” ~Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Declines Most Since December 2022
“The October inflation release provides a welcome respite from resurgent price increases over the past few months. But while the most recent CPI and EPI readings relay a positive state of affairs in the resumption of disinflation, challenges and uncertainties persist.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly September 2023
“While we refrain from providing a specific magnitude for our recession forecast and acknowledge the possibility of inaccuracies or outright error, we maintain our contention that the US will enter an economic recession by September 2024.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly January 2024
“In addition to a softening labor market and US consumer activity finally appearing to hit a wall, the potential for shocks of an endogenous or exogenous nature elevated.” ~Peter C. Earle
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•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Spikes 0.73 Percent
“While tailwinds from normalizing supply chains are cooling goods prices, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend. In particular, the February CPI readings strongly suggest that the January updraft was not anomalous.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly December 2023
“Inflation expectations have edged higher, raising concerns about the erosion of purchasing power and living standards. In the lead-up to the November presidential elections, policymakers and market participants will closely monitor future economic data releases to gauge the trajectory of inflation and its implications for the broader economy.” ~Peter C. Earle
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•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.52 Percent in January 2024
“The January 2024 CPI report highlights the challenges of returning inflation to the Fed’s target range and suggests a bumpy road ahead.” ~Peter C. Earle
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•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Ends 2023 with Third Consecutive Monthly Decline
“The recent reduction in disinflationary pressures related to core goods, which had been a significant factor in easing price pressures in recent months, seems to have diminished.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly November 2023
“In light of expectations of falling demand and the increased vulnerability of the US economy to geopolitical shocks, our prediction of a US recession by September 2024 stands.” ~Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Largest Decline in 2023
“While the likelihood of another rate hike in the final FOMC meeting of 2023 this week is low, the slowing rate of disinflation and stubbornly elevated prices suggest that speculation regarding the start of rate cuts is, at best, early.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly October 2023
“While we continue to impartially and vigilantly assess incoming data, our current analysis still points to a recession occurring before September 2024 as the most probable scenario.” ~Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Declines Most Since December 2022
“The October inflation release provides a welcome respite from resurgent price increases over the past few months. But while the most recent CPI and EPI readings relay a positive state of affairs in the resumption of disinflation, challenges and uncertainties persist.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly September 2023
“While we refrain from providing a specific magnitude for our recession forecast and acknowledge the possibility of inaccuracies or outright error, we maintain our contention that the US will enter an economic recession by September 2024.” ~Peter C. Earle