Business Conditions
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Business Conditions Monthly March 2023
“No indicators are conclusive, and all are subject to change or revision. But in the the aggregate, current data suggests that US economic fundamentals are deteriorating. The current baseline estimate is for an economic recession within the next twelve to eighteen months.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Flat in March 2023
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose 0.03 percent in March 2023, following increases of 0.93 percent in January and 0.67 percent in February.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly February 2023
“The AIER Leading Indicator remained essentially neutral in February 2023, maintaining the level of 58 from the previous month. Our Roughly Coincident Indicator rose from 50 to 92 in February 2023, with the Lagging Indicator falling from 50 to 33.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index rises 0.67% in February 2023
“As was the case in January 2023, AIER’s Everyday Price Index shows a larger month-over-month increase in household costs than either the headline or core Consumer Price Index readings indicate.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly February 2023
“In January 2023, the AIER Leading Indicators rose to a just-above-neutral 58, with the Coincident and Lagging Indicators falling to a neutral 50. This is the most neutral the Business Conditions Monthly have been since the Spring of 2020.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Increases Nearly 1% in January 2023
“AIER’s Everyday Price rose 0.93 percent in January, following a decline of 1.3 percent in December 2022. Some persistently high and rising prices amid a slowing and uneven deflation is likely to raise the Fed’s terminal policy rate and increase the risk of recession in the next 24 months.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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4th Quarter 2022 GDP Shows Growth, but Deteriorating Fundamentals
“The US economy grew in the 4th quarter of 2022, but caution is warranted. Money supply growth has turned negative, consumer and business confidence are in decline, and economic fundamentals are softening broadly.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Consumer Sentiment Rose and Inflation Expectations Fell Sharply in January
“Consumer sentiment improved in January, sustaining the recent uptrend, though the overall level remains weak. Short-term inflation expectations fell sharply, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Fifth Time in Six Months
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 1.3 in December, the fifth decline in the last six months. Emerging signs of slowing economic activity, an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Fell Slightly
“Initial claims fell slightly, but job cut announcements are trending higher. Elevated consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Business Conditions Monthly March 2023
“No indicators are conclusive, and all are subject to change or revision. But in the the aggregate, current data suggests that US economic fundamentals are deteriorating. The current baseline estimate is for an economic recession within the next twelve to eighteen months.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Flat in March 2023
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose 0.03 percent in March 2023, following increases of 0.93 percent in January and 0.67 percent in February.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly February 2023
“The AIER Leading Indicator remained essentially neutral in February 2023, maintaining the level of 58 from the previous month. Our Roughly Coincident Indicator rose from 50 to 92 in February 2023, with the Lagging Indicator falling from 50 to 33.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index rises 0.67% in February 2023
“As was the case in January 2023, AIER’s Everyday Price Index shows a larger month-over-month increase in household costs than either the headline or core Consumer Price Index readings indicate.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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•
Business Conditions Monthly February 2023
“In January 2023, the AIER Leading Indicators rose to a just-above-neutral 58, with the Coincident and Lagging Indicators falling to a neutral 50. This is the most neutral the Business Conditions Monthly have been since the Spring of 2020.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Increases Nearly 1% in January 2023
“AIER’s Everyday Price rose 0.93 percent in January, following a decline of 1.3 percent in December 2022. Some persistently high and rising prices amid a slowing and uneven deflation is likely to raise the Fed’s terminal policy rate and increase the risk of recession in the next 24 months.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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4th Quarter 2022 GDP Shows Growth, but Deteriorating Fundamentals
“The US economy grew in the 4th quarter of 2022, but caution is warranted. Money supply growth has turned negative, consumer and business confidence are in decline, and economic fundamentals are softening broadly.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Consumer Sentiment Rose and Inflation Expectations Fell Sharply in January
“Consumer sentiment improved in January, sustaining the recent uptrend, though the overall level remains weak. Short-term inflation expectations fell sharply, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Falls for the Fifth Time in Six Months
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index fell 1.3 in December, the fifth decline in the last six months. Emerging signs of slowing economic activity, an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Fell Slightly
“Initial claims fell slightly, but job cut announcements are trending higher. Elevated consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes