Business Conditions

“Services-sector survey suggests contraction in December and is consistent with weak results from the manufacturing-sector survey. Should these results persist, it would be an ominous sign for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Payrolls rose in December, but the pace appears to be slowing. Mixed signs for the labor market, sustained price pressures, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Light-vehicle sales slowed again in December and remain well below pre-pandemic rates. Inventories rose, and prices fell in November.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Initial claims fell to a 14-week low, but job cut announcements are trending higher. Elevated consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“The latest manufacturing survey suggests broad weakness and falling price pressures for manufacturers. The outlook remains highly uncertain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Private-sector job openings fell in November but remain high, suggesting an ongoing labor shortage. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Consumer sentiment improved in December but remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations fell sharply, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes

“New-home sales rose in November but remain below its long-term average. High prices, bloated inventory, and elevated mortgage rates suggest a poor outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Durable-goods orders fell in November while growth in real durable-goods orders and real core capital goods orders remains modest.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Headline real GDP growth was revised higher in the third quarter, but domestic demand growth remained soft. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes