Business Conditions
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.29 Percent in September 2023
“Spots of price momentum in the September CPI support the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer mantra, and raise the possibility that even now policy rates are insufficiently restrictive.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly August 2023
“As social scientists we remain alert for and open to cogent, economically-sound and well-reasoned hypotheses pertaining to the current state of the economy. Presently, though, our expectation of a US recession on or before August 2024 remains undeterred.” ~Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Biggest Monthly Jump since January
“Despite some improvements since the apparent peak 13 months ago, consumers and businesses are still contending with 31 months of above-trend rising prices.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly July 2023
“In summary, and with the caution that should attend social science empirics: a weakening US job market on top of the increasingly encumbered financial circumstances of many US citizens renders the continuation of robust consumption doubtful.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.34 percent in July 2023
“Ninety percent of the increase in the headline index was accounted for by increases in shelter costs, with additional contributions from motor vehicle insurance and food at home prices.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly June 2023
“At present we continue to believe that the US will enter a recession by September 2024, but will adjust our perspectives if and when necessary as new data and facts become available.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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May 2023 Business Conditions Monthly
“In addition to the likelihood of an additional one or more rate hikes before the end of this year, our March 2023 prediction of a US economic recession within the next twelve to eighteen months–by end-of-summer 2024–remains intact.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly April 2023
“AIER’s April Business Conditions Monthly indicators reflect the disparate, and to some extent offsetting economic signals emergent within the US economy today.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up 0.60 Percent in April 2023
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose 0.60 percent in April 2023 following being essentially unchanged in March and rising 1.6 percent in January and February.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Stagflation Lite: 1st Quarter US GDP Growth Weakens to 1.1 Percent Amid a Renewed Inflationary Surge
“The current US economic environment could be categorized as stagflation lite, demonstrating as it does relatively resilient employment amid increasingly entrenched inflation and weakening growth.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.29 Percent in September 2023
“Spots of price momentum in the September CPI support the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer mantra, and raise the possibility that even now policy rates are insufficiently restrictive.” ~Peter C. Earle
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•
Business Conditions Monthly August 2023
“As social scientists we remain alert for and open to cogent, economically-sound and well-reasoned hypotheses pertaining to the current state of the economy. Presently, though, our expectation of a US recession on or before August 2024 remains undeterred.” ~Peter C. Earle
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•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Biggest Monthly Jump since January
“Despite some improvements since the apparent peak 13 months ago, consumers and businesses are still contending with 31 months of above-trend rising prices.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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•
Business Conditions Monthly July 2023
“In summary, and with the caution that should attend social science empirics: a weakening US job market on top of the increasingly encumbered financial circumstances of many US citizens renders the continuation of robust consumption doubtful.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.34 percent in July 2023
“Ninety percent of the increase in the headline index was accounted for by increases in shelter costs, with additional contributions from motor vehicle insurance and food at home prices.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly June 2023
“At present we continue to believe that the US will enter a recession by September 2024, but will adjust our perspectives if and when necessary as new data and facts become available.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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May 2023 Business Conditions Monthly
“In addition to the likelihood of an additional one or more rate hikes before the end of this year, our March 2023 prediction of a US economic recession within the next twelve to eighteen months–by end-of-summer 2024–remains intact.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly April 2023
“AIER’s April Business Conditions Monthly indicators reflect the disparate, and to some extent offsetting economic signals emergent within the US economy today.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up 0.60 Percent in April 2023
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose 0.60 percent in April 2023 following being essentially unchanged in March and rising 1.6 percent in January and February.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Stagflation Lite: 1st Quarter US GDP Growth Weakens to 1.1 Percent Amid a Renewed Inflationary Surge
“The current US economic environment could be categorized as stagflation lite, demonstrating as it does relatively resilient employment amid increasingly entrenched inflation and weakening growth.” ~ Peter C. Earle