Business Conditions

“Existing-home sales fell again in November as reduced affordability pushes buyers out of the market. The outlook for housing remains unfavorable.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Consumer confidence rebounded in December, but consumer expectations remain at recessionary levels. An aggressive Fed tightening cycle, elevated price pressures, and the fallout from the Russian war in Ukraine remain risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“New housing permits fell again in November as low affordability suppresses demand. Very low homebuilder sentiment suggests an unfavorable outlook for housing.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Nominal and real retail spending fell in November, and trends remain weak. Risks for the economic outlook remain elevated. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Industrial-sector output fell in November. Elevated price pressures, weak consumer sentiment, and an aggressive Fed tightening cycle remain risks. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Initial claims fell to a three-month low while continuing claims jumped to an eight-month high. Elevated consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Consumer sentiment improved in December but remains at recessionary levels. Inflation expectations ticked down, and long-run expectations remain well anchored.” ~ Robert Hughes

“Consumer credit rose in October, and the growth rate is accelerating. Consumer balance sheets are in good shape, but the combination of rising debt levels and rising interest rates could be a problem down the road.” – Robert Hughes

“Rising weekly initial claims and increasing job cut announcements may signal some labor market softening. Rapid consumer price increases and aggressive Fed tightening remain major risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes