Sound Money Project
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Revised Inflation Data Don’t Change the Fed’s Job
The BEA’s annual revisions shaved a few tenths off the rate of inflation. But spending levels suggest the Fed’s fight is far from over.
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The Fed Finally Raised Rates. Now Comes the Hard Part.
Inflation has been above target for 65 months. The Fed took a first step, but to restore stability, tightening must continue.
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Warsh’s First Test: Will the Fed Follow the Rules?
Monetary rules indicate interest rates are too low. September’s FOMC meeting offers an opportunity for the Fed to correct course.
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July Inflation Rises, But Weakening Labor Complicates Fed’s Choice
The Fed is caught between cooling labor conditions and persistent demand, as nominal spending growth remains above its pre-pandemic pace.
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Fed’s Task Force Should Fix What It Targets
A nominal spending target would spare The Fed guessing about the causes of inflation. The Chairman’s new task force could apply a rule instead.
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One Month of Falling Prices Won’t Restore Price Stability
June’s PCE report showed prices falling as energy prices retreated, but underlying inflation and nominal spending remain too strong.
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Standing Still as Inflation Runs Hot
Markets, monetary policy rules, and three Fed governors all pointed toward another rate increase. The committee chose to wait instead.
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The Fed Is Expected to Hold Rates. The Rules Say It Shouldn’t
If the Fed leaves rates unchanged this week, the September meeting will take on added importance.
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June Inflation Slowed as Energy Prices Fell
Markets sharply reduced the odds of a July rate increase after June CPI showed broad-based moderation in prices.
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The Fed Needs Independence, Not Immunity
Monetary policy deserves insulation from politics, but regulation and emergency lending powers may not. Can Congress and the Courts differentiate?
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•
Revised Inflation Data Don’t Change the Fed’s Job
The BEA’s annual revisions shaved a few tenths off the rate of inflation. But spending levels suggest the Fed’s fight is far from over.
-
•
The Fed Finally Raised Rates. Now Comes the Hard Part.
Inflation has been above target for 65 months. The Fed took a first step, but to restore stability, tightening must continue.
-
•
Warsh’s First Test: Will the Fed Follow the Rules?
Monetary rules indicate interest rates are too low. September’s FOMC meeting offers an opportunity for the Fed to correct course.
-
•
July Inflation Rises, But Weakening Labor Complicates Fed’s Choice
The Fed is caught between cooling labor conditions and persistent demand, as nominal spending growth remains above its pre-pandemic pace.
-
•
Fed’s Task Force Should Fix What It Targets
A nominal spending target would spare The Fed guessing about the causes of inflation. The Chairman’s new task force could apply a rule instead.
-
•
One Month of Falling Prices Won’t Restore Price Stability
June’s PCE report showed prices falling as energy prices retreated, but underlying inflation and nominal spending remain too strong.
-
•
Standing Still as Inflation Runs Hot
Markets, monetary policy rules, and three Fed governors all pointed toward another rate increase. The committee chose to wait instead.
-
•
The Fed Is Expected to Hold Rates. The Rules Say It Shouldn’t
If the Fed leaves rates unchanged this week, the September meeting will take on added importance.
-
•
June Inflation Slowed as Energy Prices Fell
Markets sharply reduced the odds of a July rate increase after June CPI showed broad-based moderation in prices.
-
•
The Fed Needs Independence, Not Immunity
Monetary policy deserves insulation from politics, but regulation and emergency lending powers may not. Can Congress and the Courts differentiate?