Sound Money Project
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The Fed Sees Higher Inflation Coming — and May Cut Rates Anyway
Inflation is well above two percent, but rate paths haven’t moved. The disconnect suggests a shift in how much inflation the Fed is willing to tolerate.
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Monetary Policy Rules Suggest Fed Should Hold Steady in March
The federal funds rate is already lower than levels recommended by several well-known policy guidelines. Recent uncertainty does not justify further easing.
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Fed Officials Face Diverging Mandates
Evidence suggests that inflation is relatively widespread, job creation has weakened, the Fed will likely hold the policy rate steady.
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Warsh: The Fed Helped Create Fiscal Dominance
Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh argues the Fed has drifted far beyond its mandate, becoming a “general-purpose agency of government.”
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The Fed Has a Groupthink Problem. Warsh Can Fix It
Evidence shows groupthink has produced suboptimal monetary policy. Kevin Warsh’s out-of-sync views could bring much-needed diversity to the Fed.
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How Concerning Are the February Jobs Numbers?
Slow job growth is expected when we remain near full employment and the working-age population is growing slowly.
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Central Banks Can’t Stop Wars
Central banks face pressure to absorb oil shortages and other shocks, but tightening money risks compounding the damage.
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Delayed Data Unlikely to Resolve Disagreements at Fed
Fresh data confirm lingering inflation, but data disruptions, policy shocks, and political pressures are complicating the Fed’s next move.
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Indebted to the Printing Press: Fiscal Dominance Is No Longer Theoretical
As debt-service costs surge, deficits pressure the Fed in ways that threaten long-term price stability. Pandemic stimulus has given way to structural imbalance.
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Inflation Is Cooling: Jan 2026 Increase Below Seasonal Norms
Shelter and energy costs led the deceleration. While inflation remains above the Fed’s target, the monthly price growth neared a multi-year low.
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•
The Fed Sees Higher Inflation Coming — and May Cut Rates Anyway
Inflation is well above two percent, but rate paths haven’t moved. The disconnect suggests a shift in how much inflation the Fed is willing to tolerate.
-
•
Monetary Policy Rules Suggest Fed Should Hold Steady in March
The federal funds rate is already lower than levels recommended by several well-known policy guidelines. Recent uncertainty does not justify further easing.
-
•
Fed Officials Face Diverging Mandates
Evidence suggests that inflation is relatively widespread, job creation has weakened, the Fed will likely hold the policy rate steady.
-
•
Warsh: The Fed Helped Create Fiscal Dominance
Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh argues the Fed has drifted far beyond its mandate, becoming a “general-purpose agency of government.”
-
•
The Fed Has a Groupthink Problem. Warsh Can Fix It
Evidence shows groupthink has produced suboptimal monetary policy. Kevin Warsh’s out-of-sync views could bring much-needed diversity to the Fed.
-
•
How Concerning Are the February Jobs Numbers?
Slow job growth is expected when we remain near full employment and the working-age population is growing slowly.
-
•
Central Banks Can’t Stop Wars
Central banks face pressure to absorb oil shortages and other shocks, but tightening money risks compounding the damage.
-
•
Delayed Data Unlikely to Resolve Disagreements at Fed
Fresh data confirm lingering inflation, but data disruptions, policy shocks, and political pressures are complicating the Fed’s next move.
-
•
Indebted to the Printing Press: Fiscal Dominance Is No Longer Theoretical
As debt-service costs surge, deficits pressure the Fed in ways that threaten long-term price stability. Pandemic stimulus has given way to structural imbalance.
-
•
Inflation Is Cooling: Jan 2026 Increase Below Seasonal Norms
Shelter and energy costs led the deceleration. While inflation remains above the Fed’s target, the monthly price growth neared a multi-year low.