Sound Money Project
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Timiraos on Supply-Side Disinflation
“Slowing down total spending growth (current-dollar GDP) by hiking interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet clearly mattered. Supply-side improvements do too, but they’re likely playing the role of the sidekick rather than the hero.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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The Fed Delivered Disinflation
“Most prices are higher today than they would have been had they grown at an average rate of 2 percent since January 2020. We oughtn’t pin a medal on an arsonist’s chest for putting out a fire he started.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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Dollarization Is A Cost-Effective Solution for Argentina
“If Argentina lacks the resources for dollarization, it most certainly does not possess the means to rescue the peso. The alternative is to continue on the current course, and approach dollarization under circumstances akin to Zimbabwe.” ~Nicolas Cachanosky
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The FOMC Was Right to Not Hike
“The best approach for the FOMC is to keep its rate target where it is. We should wait for additional inflation data in November before calling for even-tighter monetary policy.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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Inflation Remains High in September
“The Fed should keep monetary policy tight as inflation returns to its 2-percent target. But if it tightens too much, it will push the economy into an unnecessary and painful recession.” ~William J. Luther
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Alan Blinder: Let Them Eat Disinflation
“Blinder thinks deflation always and everywhere causes economic harm. ‘It takes a truly sick economy to cause deflation,’ he warns. But he’s wrong.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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The IMF is Wrong – and Right – About Crypto
“The IMF and FSB’s recommendations are transparently pro-government and anti-citizen. They overstate the potential harm of cryptocurrencies and propose monitoring systems that would benefit tyrannical governments at the expense of the public.” ~Thomas L. Hogan
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Rising Treasury Yields Can’t Substitute for Fed Rate Hikes
“If the yield curve is the explanation, then market forces aren’t ‘substituting’ for Fed policy. They’re simply reflecting an economic transition from one microeconomic equilibrium in the market for loanable funds to another.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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Inflation Ticks Up Again. Keep an Eye on Oil
“Major changes in oil prices seem likely to drive the near-term changes in CPI inflation, both headline inflation and possibly core as well. Another big question is how the Fed will respond.” ~Thomas L. Hogan
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Forced Reconversion to that “Old-Time Fiscal Religion”
“Circumstances beyond our control will likely compel us to revert to something like the ‘old-time fiscal religion’ of balanced budgets during ordinary times, reserving deficits for extraordinary times.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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•
Timiraos on Supply-Side Disinflation
“Slowing down total spending growth (current-dollar GDP) by hiking interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet clearly mattered. Supply-side improvements do too, but they’re likely playing the role of the sidekick rather than the hero.” ~Alexander W. Salter
-
•
The Fed Delivered Disinflation
“Most prices are higher today than they would have been had they grown at an average rate of 2 percent since January 2020. We oughtn’t pin a medal on an arsonist’s chest for putting out a fire he started.” ~Alexander W. Salter
-
•
Dollarization Is A Cost-Effective Solution for Argentina
“If Argentina lacks the resources for dollarization, it most certainly does not possess the means to rescue the peso. The alternative is to continue on the current course, and approach dollarization under circumstances akin to Zimbabwe.” ~Nicolas Cachanosky
-
•
The FOMC Was Right to Not Hike
“The best approach for the FOMC is to keep its rate target where it is. We should wait for additional inflation data in November before calling for even-tighter monetary policy.” ~Alexander W. Salter
-
•
Inflation Remains High in September
“The Fed should keep monetary policy tight as inflation returns to its 2-percent target. But if it tightens too much, it will push the economy into an unnecessary and painful recession.” ~William J. Luther
-
•
Alan Blinder: Let Them Eat Disinflation
“Blinder thinks deflation always and everywhere causes economic harm. ‘It takes a truly sick economy to cause deflation,’ he warns. But he’s wrong.” ~Alexander W. Salter
-
•
The IMF is Wrong – and Right – About Crypto
“The IMF and FSB’s recommendations are transparently pro-government and anti-citizen. They overstate the potential harm of cryptocurrencies and propose monitoring systems that would benefit tyrannical governments at the expense of the public.” ~Thomas L. Hogan
-
•
Rising Treasury Yields Can’t Substitute for Fed Rate Hikes
“If the yield curve is the explanation, then market forces aren’t ‘substituting’ for Fed policy. They’re simply reflecting an economic transition from one microeconomic equilibrium in the market for loanable funds to another.” ~Alexander W. Salter
-
•
Inflation Ticks Up Again. Keep an Eye on Oil
“Major changes in oil prices seem likely to drive the near-term changes in CPI inflation, both headline inflation and possibly core as well. Another big question is how the Fed will respond.” ~Thomas L. Hogan
-
•
Forced Reconversion to that “Old-Time Fiscal Religion”
“Circumstances beyond our control will likely compel us to revert to something like the ‘old-time fiscal religion’ of balanced budgets during ordinary times, reserving deficits for extraordinary times.” ~Alexander W. Salter